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Oil prices have recently fell to $30 range, although the market is generally accepted that a slowdown in China and Saudi Arabia export growth is an important factor driving oil prices continued to fall, but in the end really pushing oil prices to $30 range driving force or from the U.S. refiners.
Need to focus on the market but is not shale oil production, but the United States in the next few weeks refining equipment utilization, which determine the U.S. refining capacity of enterprise and the consumption of crude oil inventory.
In the summer of 2015, us refineries has been maintaining full capacity. Based on the four-week moving average data analysis, the refining equipment utilization rate has been maintained at 95% since July 17 above, for the 2005 summer to the highest.
At present, the oil refining equipment continues to remain high utilization has already started to worries oil bulls. Although the U.S. refining capacity, but oil is still down nearly 30% since early July. Oil refining enterprise by pushing the gasoline demand strong stimulation and continuous production. Based on the four-week moving average data analysis, the United States in the summer of 2015 refining capacity rose 6.5% year-on-year, while the average retail gasoline prices fell $Article.Info$.75 a gallon.
But the United States in addition to the gasoline product demand, the demand of other oil products in the past four weeks compared with flat, the significant meaning to crude oil bulls, because of a surge in demand for gasoline from the summer travel peak, with the coming of the off-season and refining equipment maintenance fall season, the crude oil market fundamentals will lack of effective positive support.
In addition, the failure condition of refining equipment has the benefit of the crude oil bulls. Because refining equipment in full load operation for a long time easily cause malfunction, resulting in the production, such as the recent BP (BP) indiana Whiting refinery main refining module was forced to shut down due to failure.
Statistics show that the United States over the last twenty years at the end of August and refining equipment utilization rate fell by an average of 4.8% at the end of October, and in 2005 was staggering 15.4% of the decline, but at that time the United States suffered a "rita" and "katrina" two big hurricane. But in the summer of 2004, the American refining equipment utilization rate is over 95%, then plunged 7.1% in the offseason. Calculated by now, the American demand for crude oil refining enterprise, if the utilization rate of off-season with margin decline in 2015, to the end of October, crude oil demand will fall to 1.3 million barrels a day. Once appear this kind of situation, unless the crude oil output can quickly under control or other parts of the crude oil demand rapid rise, prices during the year will also be tumbling.
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